Bubble Watch

[ncope45]

Guys, I do a little writing for the Vanderbilt Rivals site, and every year I put together a pretty thorough Bubble Watch covering the national scene. I usually update it twice a week or so, depending on how much time I have.

I figured I'd share it with ya'll. It's a free article. If anyone is interested, I'll keep posting the updates; if not, I'll stop.

http://vanderbilt.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=514878

[OCCoug]

A team on the bubble to look out for in the coming weeks is Notre Dame, who could very well end up being this year's West Virginia.

Despite close losses to Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, DePaul, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, and Louisville which proved we could play with any team in the conference... we've turned it around recently and have won 3 straight, all relatively easily.

Currently we are 13-10 (4-8).

Our final four game are @UConn, Marquette, @Providence, and DePaul. If we win 3 of 4, we will be 16-11 (7-9) going into the BE Tourney. If we manage to go 2-1, which isn't all that crazy considering our talent, how we've been playing, and the fact that we've shown we can play with a Pittsburgh, WVU, or Villanova... if we can go 2-1 in the BE Tourney, I think we have a good shot.

With that, we'll have wins over good teams in Marquette, Alabama, Seton Hall, and a 'Nova/Pitt/WVU type team... not to mention a 8-2 record in the final 10.

I think that finish would get Notre Dame in the tourny... but there's still a long way to go and little room for error.

[ncope45]

They've got a lot of work to do. The RPI is at 86 right now, so I think from that angle the UConn win is a must. Marquette would be a good win, but I don't think those 5 (3 in regular season + 2 in tourney) will be enough without a great win down the stretch.

You're right, though, they aren't totally dead. Tomorrow will decide the season in my opinion.

[jgully]

I think the only loss Notre Dame can afford would be at UConn. And even if they won the other 3 games and went pretty deep into the tourney their RPI would be in the 60's at best. Plus I don't think the selection committee would put more than 6 or 7 teams from one conference in the dance, depending on how Syracuse, Cincy, Marquette, and Seton Hall. I think there are too many teams in front of the Irish right now to feel good about their chances, but stranger things have happened.

[FieldingBLUE]

Michigan. Biggest problem (or help) might be the injuries. Two starters and two key subs are out, or severely limited, right now. Abram has been MIA for the better part of 3 weeks now, Smith and Harris missed a few games and now Hunter is sidelined for who knows how long. Sometimes the committee shows some lenience regarding losses when outmanned due to injury, but ONLY if the team is fully healthy for the dance.

RPI stands at 29.

What they need to do, imho, since they lack a signature road win:

To be comfortable about a bid
- Win two of their final three reg. season games: ILL, @ OSU, IND
- Win (at least) first B10 tourney game

To be a LOCK
- Win two of their final three reg. season games: ILL, @ OSU, IND
- Reach the semis of the B10 tourney
OR
- Win final three reg. season games (above)
- Win (at least) first B10 tourney game
OR
- Win the B10 tourney :)

[OCCoug]

I think the Big East deserves at least 8-9 teams in the Dance. If we manage 18 wins, it's predicted our RPI will be around 50... with 19, it could get up to the low 40s.

Pomeroy ranks ND at 32.
ND is a respectable 5-10 agains the RPI Top 100, and 8-0 against 100 and lower. If we beat Marquette, DePaul, and Providence, we'll be 8-11 against the top 100.

I don't think the UConn game is the most important game. Granted, a win there would be amazing for ND's chances, but I think a solid finish like I stated above is more important.

One thing the NCAA Selection Committee looks for in a bubble team is a team that won't make them look dumb, a team that won't lay an egg in the first round. With ND, that's definately what you get - a team that will compete and is capable of making a run.

ND's worst losses are @DePaul (94) and @Louisville (67).
Their best wins are @Alabama (38), @Seton Hall (44), Hofstra (46).

Looking at the teams on your Bubble Watch article, I don't know who I'd take above ND...

Cincinnati, Marquette, Syracuse, Indiana, Michigan, Alabama

Who else would you take over them from a major conference? I just don't see anyone else that I'd for sure take, and I think ND would be a safe choice to the commitee.. I think if we finish like I said (18 wins), we'd have a solid chance... 19 wins would all but insure it IMO.

[ncope45]

I think it depends on if you mean now or after the next 4 games, or some hybrid of both. I'm not sure how to answer that question without knowing the parameters.

The problem is that Notre Dame doesn't have a win over a team that is definitely in the tournament. Bama is close, but they have work to do.

I do think the Big East gets 8, though. I'm not sure the committee gives them 9.

[jgully]

Well last year Notre Dame was 17-11 and 9-7 in the Big East and the committee passed them over. I think this year the committee is going to be more prone to give some mid-major such as NC-Wilmington or Utah State a bid over the 9th team from the Big East.

As for Notre Dame's most important games, it has to be against Providence and DePaul because their competeing for the last spots in the Big East tourney.

[ZachArt002]

I think you're dreaming MrTank. Right now, ND is sitting at 12 place in the Big East with four games left. I'm pretty sure that only 12 teams from the Big East make it into the Big East Tournament. Providence has the same Big East record as you and doesn't have to play UConn the rest of the way.

Plus, even if they win out they only break even in conference and only will have 17 wins. Considering that the UConn game is as close to a guaranteed loss as you can get, ND will finish the regular season with just 16 wins.

[doh]

Cope, that's a very well written article and I enjoyed reading it. Keep up the good work.

The two teams I follow on our the bubble. Here is what I think of the two

Syracuse: If they win @ DePaul and/or any of the following: win @ G-Town, win vs. Nova or win a BE tourney game, they are in. The win tonight was huge and they should actually have an RPI better than WV tommorow when they are updated.

California: If they just beat Oregon State and Arizona State at home, then they are in. Now, with a very weak RPI (65), I think they have to win atleast 4 more games (including Pac-10 tournament) in order to get a bid.

[OCCoug]

I think you're dreaming MrTank. Right now, ND is sitting at 12 place in the Big East with four games left. I'm pretty sure that only 12 teams from the Big East make it into the Big East Tournament. Providence has the same Big East record as you and doesn't have to play UConn the rest of the way.

Plus, even if they win out they only break even in conference and only will have 17 wins. Considering that the UConn game is as close to a guaranteed loss as you can get, ND will finish the regular season with just 16 wins.

Not sure what you mean about dreaming. I might be dreaming about the situation I described coming true, although it certainly seems possible, and if it happens I think ND has a wonderful argument for getting in.

The difference between this year and last year is the finish. Last year ND finished terribly including I believe a bad loss to a bad Rutgers team in the first round of the BET. This year would be the opposite if all works out.

Looking at the conference standings now and saying "we're 12th, we have no chance to move up" is silly. Our schedule was seemingly front loaded and has since gotten lighter.

We are tied with 'Ville and Providence and Rutgers has a half game up on us while SJ is a half game down.

SJ has Seton Hall, @'Nova, Rutgers
LV has DePaul, @WVU, Marqutte, @UConn
Providence has USF, @Pitt, Notre Dame, @Marquette
Rutgers has @GT, USF, @SJs

Cincinnati and Syracuse both have 7 wins, but they could each lose their last 3 with games vs Villanova, @Seton Hall, vs WVU and @GT, @DePaul, vs Nova respectively.

Here's a "for example" scenario:
February 21
Seton Hall (1047) St. John's (251)
South Florida (117) Providence (1247)
Notre Dame (138) Connecticut (1259)
February 22
Rutgers (62) Georgetown (1295)
DePaul (113) Louisville (1240)
February 23
Villanova (1144) Cincinnati (131)
February 25
Syracuse (199) Georgetown (1148)
Providence (70) Pittsburgh (1276)
Seton Hall (1031) DePaul (274)
Marquette (579) Notre Dame (771)
Louisville (132) West Virginia (1225)
February 26
Villanova (147) Connecticut (1182)
South Florida (100) Rutgers (1227)
February 27
Pittsburgh (374) West Virginia (954)
February 28
Cincinnati (476) Seton Hall (836)
March 1
St. John's (66) Villanova (1270)
Notre Dame (1061) Providence (240)
Marquette (777) Louisville (522)
Connecticut (1243) South Florida (42)
March 2
Syracuse (1103) DePaul (177)
March 3
Seton Hall (135) Pittsburgh (1177)
March 4
DePaul (83) Notre Dame (1264)
Providence (66) Marquette (1272)
Louisville (68) Connecticut (1270)
West Virginia (964) Cincinnati (344)
Georgetown (1244) South Florida (53)
March 5
Rutgers (579) St. John's (730)
Villanova (1095) Syracuse (197)

This input would produce the following output:

Current Projected
Conference Games All Games Conference Games All Games
W L % W L % W L % W L %
1 Villanova 11 1 .917 21 2 .913 14 2 .875 24 3 .889
1 Connecticut 10 2 .833 23 2 .920 14 2 .875 27 2 .931
3 West Virginia 9 4 .692 18 8 .692 12 4 .750 21 8 .724
4 Pittsburgh 9 4 .692 20 4 .833 11 5 .688 22 5 .815
4 Georgetown 8 5 .615 17 7 .708 11 5 .688 20 7 .741
6 Marquette 8 5 .615 18 8 .692 10 6 .625 20 9 .690
6 Seton Hall 7 5 .583 16 8 .667 10 6 .625 19 9 .679
8 Syracuse 7 6 .538 19 8 .704 8 8 .500 20 10 .667
9 Notre Dame 4 8 .333 13 10 .565 7 9 .438 16 11 .593
9 Cincinnati 7 6 .538 18 9 .667 7 9 .438 18 12 .600
11 Rutgers 5 8 .385 15 11 .577 6 10 .375 16 13 .552
12 St. John's 4 9 .308 11 13 .458 5 11 .313 12 15 .444
12 Louisville 4 8 .333 16 9 .640 5 11 .313 17 12 .586
12 Providence 4 8 .333 11 12 .478 5 11 .313 12 15 .444
15 DePaul 3 9 .250 10 13 .435 3 13 .188 10 17 .370
16 South Florida 0 12 .000 6 19 .240 0 16 .000 6 23 .207

Ignoring tiebreakers because I'm not sure how they work... but ND could finish between 8-12 depending on how everything works out, I wouldn't pencil them in at 12 yet because it'll likely be higher.

And N. Cope I agree what I said was really confusing regarding picking teams! [laugh] Basically, all I did was compare best wins and worst losses AT THIS POINT, nothing really in depth. :)

[swlpack]

The FSU-UMD game is an elimination game for the fifth spot from the ACC. FSU has been playing better than the Terps lately, so barring som bizarre turn of events, I think the Noles will be the ACC's fifth team, meanwhile Gary Williams can enjoy his second consecutive NIT.

Next year the ACC is going to be back to the usual 6 or maybe more bid league, so I'm not too worried about this one down year.

[Spurs&Feathers]

nice job, cope... very thorough, very informative... and i believe you are dead on with south carolina's chances. we need to win 3 of our last 4 just to remain on the bubble. imo if we finish the season 2-2 and vandy finishes strong, we will need to win the sec tourney to get in. 3-1 keep us on the bubble though and at least gives us a chance to state our case in the tourney by winning a couple.

[Chase56]

Notre Dame has to get to the Big East Finals to even be considered to make the tournament. They beat one team all year, Alabama on the road. The Big East will get 8 teams in, easy and Notre Dame is probably the 12th best team in the conference.

Syracuse ain't on the bubble, they're in.

If Indiana loses to PSU on Wednesday, they're done. They have to go 3-1 to get in.

I think when it's all over...

The Big East gets 9 (UConn, Nova, Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, WVU, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Cincinatti)

Big 10 gets 7, (MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana)

Big 12 gets 4, (Texas, OU, Colorado, Kansas)

ACC gets 4, (Duke, UNC, BC, NC State)

Pac 10 gets 4, (UCLA, Washington, Cal, Arizona)

MVC will get those 5 teams in.

I pretty much agree with your column, it'll be interesting to see if the Bucknell's and Gonzagas, Air Forces don't win their tourneys because some major shit could go down.

[doh]

Notre Dame has to get to the Big East Finals to even be considered to make the tournament. They beat one team all year, Alabama on the road. The Big East will get 8 teams in, easy and Notre Dame is probably the 12th best team in the conference.

Syracuse ain't on the bubble, they're in.

If Indiana loses to PSU on Wednesday, they're done. They have to go 3-1 to get in.

I think when it's all over...

The Big East gets 9 (UConn, Nova, Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, WVU, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Cincinatti)

Big 10 gets 7, (MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana)

Big 12 gets 4, (Texas, OU, Colorado, Kansas)

ACC gets 4, (Duke, UNC, BC, NC State)

Pac 10 gets 4, (UCLA, Washington, Cal, Arizona)

MVC will get those 5 teams in.
I don't think S.Illinois makes it (lack of top wins, 2 very bad losses). Bradley is so/so.

Cal is not going to make it as an at-large unless they beat UCLA and get 3 wins in addition to that. And I agree that Syracuse, barring they lose all of the rest of their games

[OCCoug]

What do you guys think abot Hofstra?

RPI in the mid 40s, 20-5 overall record. I think though they're 12-4 in the CAA and in 3rd place there. Probably don't have any good OOC wins, and their OOC loss is to ND. But, with a mid 40s RPI they must be doing something right. ESPN's Bracketologist didn't even mention them in his latest set, though.

Do they have a shot, or must they win their conference tournament?

[ncope45]

I don't think S.Illinois makes it (lack of top wins, 2 very bad losses). Bradley is so/so.

Cal is not going to make it as an at-large unless they beat UCLA and get 3 wins in addition to that. And I agree that Syracuse, barring they lose all of the rest of their games

That 5th spot in the MVC is very interesting. I think Missouri State has definitely passed Southern Illinois. SIU has a couple of really bad losses, but they were all at the very beginning of the season. The problem for them is that all of their good wins were in conference.

Northern Iowa holds the key to the 5th spot. SIU and Bradley both play NIU in the next week. A win by either squad could change the picture. Obviously, that conference tournament will be huge.

The problem is that the Committee will likely be looking for a reason to keep the 5th team out, so the resumes better be good. Don't count Bradley out right now, though.

Doh, Cal has a rough stretch of games coming up. If they can get another good win, and not screw the pooch, I think they'll be fine. I know the Committee doesn't "count league bids," but I don't buy it. How did they lose to Eastern Michigan, though?

By the way, this was written before Sunday's games. Syracuse certainly looks good, but WVU is really fading lately. The Cuse still needs to get one from Georgetown, DePaul and Villanova, which will put them at 8-8 in the BEast.

[ncope45]

What do you guys think abot Hofstra?

RPI in the mid 40s, 20-5 overall record. I think though they're 12-4 in the CAA and in 3rd place there. Probably don't have any good OOC wins, and their OOC loss is to ND. But, with a mid 40s RPI they must be doing something right. ESPN's Bracketologist didn't even mention them in his latest set, though.

Do they have a shot, or must they win their conference tournament?

I mentioned this in a follow-up post on that board, but I think I might have shafted the Colonial. Hofstra and ODU probably deserve mention, if only for the RPI figure.

Hofstra's main problem is that they haven't beaten anyone who jumps out as definite tourney teams. They are 4-3 against the Top 100, but those wins are UNC-Wilmington, 2 x ODU, and LaSalle. They lost to Towson (196) and Northeastern (106). The 20-5 record is nice, but the OoC SOS is 270, and the total SOS is 185. If they can beat George Mason on Thursday, they have to be in the picture. Without that win, I just don't see it.

[ncope45]

nice job, cope... very thorough, very informative... and i believe you are dead on with south carolina's chances. we need to win 3 of our last 4 just to remain on the bubble. imo if we finish the season 2-2 and vandy finishes strong, we will need to win the sec tourney to get in. 3-1 keep us on the bubble though and at least gives us a chance to state our case in the tourney by winning a couple.

Exactly Spurs, that's why that Saturday game is so crucial. Obviously, that Georgia game is big for ya'll, as is our game against LSU (although our's isn't as much of a must-win), but that game is a direct face off. I don't think the loser has much of an argument.

That was a tough loss for ya'll against Kentucky. I dread being one of the last teams on the bubble against UK.

[ncope45]

The FSU-UMD game is an elimination game for the fifth spot from the ACC. FSU has been playing better than the Terps lately, so barring som bizarre turn of events, I think the Noles will be the ACC's fifth team, meanwhile Gary Williams can enjoy his second consecutive NIT.

Next year the ACC is going to be back to the usual 6 or maybe more bid league, so I'm not too worried about this one down year.

This has just been uncharacteristic for the ACC, but everyone is due one of these. Welcome to the world of a 12 team league.

That FSU-UMD game will be huge. If Maryland loses, they have to beat UNC. No doubt about it. Most likely, they would be done.

I'm not sure that win would put FSU in the tourney, though. They still lack that marquee win. If they could beat Duke, that would obviously clinch things. However, losing to UMD would most likely close the book on the Noles, barring a win over the Dookies.

[Fluff E Bunny]

This has just been uncharacteristic for the ACC, but everyone is due one of these. Welcome to the world of a 12 team league.

That FSU-UMD game will be huge. If Maryland loses, they have to beat UNC. No doubt about it. Most likely, they would be done.

I'm not sure that win would put FSU in the tourney, though. They still lack that marquee win. If they could beat Duke, that would obviously clinch things. However, losing to UMD would most likely close the book on the Noles, barring a win over the Dookies.


Maryland still has a top-50 RPI, so that would technically count as a key win. I think if FSU goes 2-2 over the next four and at least 1-1 in the ACC tourney, we're in. 3-1 and 1-1 is a lock with a 10-8 counference record and 20 total wins.

Still a ton of ball to be played.

[swlpack]

^ Did you mean 3-1 and a 10-6 conference record? That would definately put FSU in. I think they get in at 9-7 as well. They would be a dangerous tournament team, and depending on how the seeding goes for the ACC Tourney, I could see the Noles in the semifinals.

[TexasAggie2323]

I like the format and agree with most of your selections. I am not so sure I would have put Iowa State on the bubble. I think that they have to win the Big 12 tourney to make it. Especially when you see that they are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Personally, I think that Texas A&M has a better shot since A&M beat Iowa State and only a small margin away from Iowa State RPI wise (73 vs 77).

[ncope45]

I like the format and agree with most of your selections. I am not so sure I would have put Iowa State on the bubble. I think that they have to win the Big 12 tourney to make it. Especially when you see that they are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Personally, I think that Texas A&M has a better shot since A&M beat Iowa State and only a small margin away from Iowa State RPI wise (73 vs 77).

It's a close call in my mind, but I think the key difference is that ISU has a couple of great wins over Iowa and Northern Iowa, whereas the only decent win for aTm is Colorado (which is decent). Now, aTm has better losses as a whole. I really need to see a good win from aTm before they get too deep into the conversation.

Now, if aTm is 19-8, 9-7 (only lose to Texas down the stretch), they have to be mentioned, but I don't think they would be locks yet. Again, beat a definite tourney team. The problem is that there aren't many chances for that in the Big 12 this year.

[TexasAggie2323]

It's a close call in my mind, but I think the key difference is that ISU has a couple of great wins over Iowa and Northern Iowa, whereas the only decent win for aTm is Colorado (which is decent). Now, aTm has better losses as a whole. I really need to see a good win from aTm before they get too deep into the conversation.

Now, if aTm is 19-8, 9-7 (only lose to Texas down the stretch), they have to be mentioned, but I don't think they would be locks yet. Again, beat a definite tourney team. The problem is that there aren't many chances for that in the Big 12 this year.

With our weak OOC schedule I was not attempting to ask you to put A&M on the bubble watch. I just think that Iowa State is not a bubble team. A team with their record (14-11 (4-8)) Is not going to make the dance with only two quality wins especially when those wins were at the beginning of the year and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. I was just pointing out that I think that A&M has a much better shot given their records and remaining schedule.

In other words I would drop Iowa State from your bubble watch.

[Fluff E Bunny]

^ Did you mean 3-1 and a 10-6 conference record? That would definately put FSU in. I think they get in at 9-7 as well. They would be a dangerous tournament team, and depending on how the seeding goes for the ACC Tourney, I could see the Noles in the semifinals.

Yes, 3-1...was having two different thoughts. Fixed it.

[ncope45]

With our weak OOC schedule I was not attempting to ask you to put A&M on the bubble watch. I just think that Iowa State is not a bubble team. A team with their record (14-11 (4-8)) Is not going to make the dance with only two quality wins especially when those wins were at the beginning of the year and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. I was just pointing out that I think that A&M has a much better shot given their records and remaining schedule.

In other words I would drop Iowa State from your bubble watch.

Yeah, I guess it sounded like I was snapping a little. I really didn't mean to do so.

The thing about ISU is their remaining schedule. They get OK St., @ Baylor, Mizzou, and @ Colorado.

If they win out, they'll get to 18-11, 8-8 and 5-5 in the last 10. Now, that's a lot of ifs, but I think it's worth watching because of the resume. Winning the next 4 would not have them in, but a couple in the tourney plus those 4 would have them in the picture.

I agree, though, they are on the extreme fringe of the list.

[Chase56]

Michigan is up 2 on Illinois. And Notre Dame is beating UConn, right now mid 2nd half.

[ZachArt002]

Michigan's win tonight should put them in. Thirty-nine from Horton? I didn't watch it at all, but 39 is pretty solid. And looks like I was wrong about ND. I don't know if a close loss helps them or not, but a one point defeat at the hands of UConn in OT has to hurt.

[jgully]

Virginia helped their at-large chances bigtime with a win over BC tonight. I think they need 2 of the last 3 (at Clem, at Mary, UNC) and one or two wins in the ACC tourney.

Seton Hall hurt their chances with a road loss to St. John's. Looking real suspect right now.

[HogsRule22]

even after wins over florida and alabama, i think arkansas is still on the bubble at 18-8 (7-6). the losses to mississippi state and ole miss are killer. our 6 conference losses have been by a combined 16 points. i think if we win our game against UT, and then take care of Georgia, we should get an at large spot.

[ncope45]

even after wins over florida and alabama, i think arkansas is still on the bubble at 18-8 (7-6). the losses to mississippi state and ole miss are killer. our 6 conference losses have been by a combined 16 points. i think if we win our game against UT, and then take care of Georgia, we should get an at large spot.

I think the UT win would be the clincher, but after last night, I think that if Arky can win the other two games (Miss. St. and @ UGA) they'll be fine. If they get a first round SEC tourney game, that's probably also a must win to be completely safe (minus the UTK win).

[AirWalke]

Iowa State seems to be out of tourney contention after the close loss at OU, but never rule out ISU making a run to win the Big 12 tourney. OSU has shown that Texas is as vulnerable as anyone in the league, and ISU plays with a chip on their shoulder when on the road.

Who knows, I might regret making this post.

[LikeWhoa20]

ISU has to win out, or knock off two the Big 12's Big Three before losing in the title game.

[Noles Fan in MA]

Is UNC-Charlotte on the bubble or NIT bound?

[Spurs&Feathers]

even after wins over florida and alabama, i think arkansas is still on the bubble at 18-8 (7-6). the losses to mississippi state and ole miss are killer. our 6 conference losses have been by a combined 16 points. i think if we win our game against UT, and then take care of Georgia, we should get an at large spot.
imo, if arkansas beats tennessee they'll be 19-8 (8-6). that's sitting pretty. only a total meltdown (ie lose out) could knock them out of the tourney.

if they lose to tennessee, i think they'll need to win the last 2 and then i think they will still get in. that is jmo... but arkansas has a lot of decent to very good wins and i only see the two bad losses.

[ncope45]

Is UNC-Charlotte on the bubble or NIT bound?

I think they are definitely NIT bound. The RPI is terrible, and the good wins just aren't there. I just don't see it.

[Noles Fan in MA]

I think they are definitely NIT bound. The RPI is terrible, and the good wins just aren't there. I just don't see it.

Just curious. They are in second place in the A-10, so who knows, GW could choke.

[OCCoug]

I mentioned this in a follow-up post on that board, but I think I might have shafted the Colonial. Hofstra and ODU probably deserve mention, if only for the RPI figure.

Hofstra's main problem is that they haven't beaten anyone who jumps out as definite tourney teams. They are 4-3 against the Top 100, but those wins are UNC-Wilmington, 2 x ODU, and LaSalle. They lost to Towson (196) and Northeastern (106). The 20-5 record is nice, but the OoC SOS is 270, and the total SOS is 185. If they can beat George Mason on Thursday, they have to be in the picture. Without that win, I just don't see it.

Got the win over #25 George Mason by 11 tonight, great win for Hofstra.

[TexasAggie2323]

You can bust Iowa State's bubble in your next column. They just lost to Baylor who is 3-11 on the year.

[LikeWhoa20]

Is any other team more fun to watch than UAB? The Blazers used their 40 minutes of hell style to upset #3 Memphis tonight and all but assure themselves a ticket in the Dance. Now, I can see why FSU and Texas A&M still have a little work left to do even after their huge home upsets of Duke and Texas, respectively. However, UAB's case is different since they already had done everything else necessary to earn a bid; I probably would have given them a spot even had they lost this game at the end.

[Spurs&Feathers]

i'd love to see us hire mike anderson away from uab when odom leaves.

[Georgiaisbetter]

i'd love to see us hire mike anderson away from uab when odom leaves.umm, fuck no. Hes staying at UAB. Contrary to popular belief, we can offer him $1,000,000+ to stay at UAB. thank you for your interest though.

[LikeWhoa20]

i'd love to see us hire mike anderson away from uab when odom leaves.
I've heard that it will take one hell of an offer to get Anderson to leave UAB since Birmingham is his hometown. In other words, he's in no rush to leave for any ol' major conference program offer.

[Georgiaisbetter]

Is any other team more fun to watch than UAB? The Blazers used their 40 minutes of hell style to upset #3 Memphis tonight and all but assure themselves a ticket in the Dance. Now, I can see why FSU and Texas A&M still have a little work left to do even after their huge home upsets of Duke and Texas, respectively. However, UAB's case is different since they already had done everything else necessary to earn a bid; I probably would have given them a spot even had they lost this game at the end.UAB is awesome to watch, no doubt. I hate that most of my friends went to Auburn. If they didnt I would have gone to UAB no doubt.

[LikeWhoa20]

UAB is awesome to watch, no doubt. I hate that most of my friends went to Auburn. If they didnt I would have gone to UAB no doubt.
This marks the 4th straight season of 20+ wins for UAB, which has to make Squeaky Johnson the winningest player in the history of the school. I'm just happy to see that their run will stay alive into the Dance.

[Georgiaisbetter]

This marks the 4th straight season of 20+ wins for UAB, which has to make Squeaky Johnson the winningest player in the history of the school. I'm just happy to see that their run will stay alive into the Dance.I seriously doubt it. UAB made the NCAA tournament 7 straight years in the 80's including an elite eight and a sweet 16. UAB won 94 games during a 4 year span from 1983-1986. That I think is the winningest 4 year span in school history. If your ever in Birmingham you should definatly go to a game. Bartow Arena has a GREAT atmosphere.

[LikeWhoa20]

I seriously doubt it. UAB made the NCAA tournament 7 straight years in the 80's including an elite eight and a sweet 16. UAB won 94 games during a 4 year span from 1983-1986. That I think is the winningest 4 year span in school history. If your ever in Birmingham you should definatly go to a game. Bartow Arena has a GREAT atmosphere.
I didn't know the history of UAB hoops so thanks for letting me know. This has still been one hell of a run for the Blazers though over the last 4 years. Yeah that atmosphere last night looked great and it only adds to how hectic the Blazers' style already is.

[Chase56]

Well, Seton Hall is in easily.

Beat Pitt, WVU and NC State on the road.

[HogsRule22]

so everyone agrees arkansas is in now right? 20-8 (9-6) in the SEC. with key wins over kansas, florida, tennessee, missouri state and key losses to ole miss and msu.

im about 99% sure we're in now, im just wondering on what kind of seed we could get. i think a good run in the SEC tourney could land us a #6 seed, winning 1 game in the tourney would get us a #7 seed, and getting to the finals or winning it could possibly get us a #5 seed.

opinions?

[Georgiaisbetter]

I didn't know the history of UAB hoops so thanks for letting me know. This has still been one hell of a run for the Blazers though over the last 4 years. Yeah that atmosphere last night looked great and it only adds to how hectic the Blazers' style already is.No problem, I grew up in Birmingham so I've been following them for a few years now. I knew UAB had some good teams in the '80s but I was surprised at how good they actually were. It has been a great run and hopefully we can pull off another upset in the tournament this year.

[LikeWhoa20]

so everyone agrees arkansas is in now right? 20-8 (9-6) in the SEC. with key wins over kansas, florida, tennessee, missouri state and key losses to ole miss and msu.

im about 99% sure we're in now, im just wondering on what kind of seed we could get. i think a good run in the SEC tourney could land us a #6 seed, winning 1 game in the tourney would get us a #7 seed, and getting to the finals or could possibly get us a #5 seed.

opinions?
Yes, Arkansas is in as of now. As of their seed, I have no clue where they could possibly be. I would put them in that 7 to 8 range as of now off the top of my head.

[NDstud21]

so everyone agrees arkansas is in now right? 20-8 (9-6) in the SEC. with key wins over kansas, florida, tennessee, missouri state and key losses to ole miss and msu.

im about 99% sure we're in now, im just wondering on what kind of seed we could get. i think a good run in the SEC tourney could land us a #6 seed, winning 1 game in the tourney would get us a #7 seed, and getting to the finals or could possibly get us a #5 seed.

opinions?

Arkansas would likely get a 6 seed if the tournament started today because of their strong run last week. The committee always favors "hot" teams.

[LikeWhoa20]

Great article here about Squeaky Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2351388).

[TexasAggie2323]

Ags are now a lock after beating up on Tech on the road.

[LikeWhoa20]

Ags are now a lock after beating up on Tech on the road.
Yeah, and they can end Colorado's hopes as well if they knock them out of the Big 12 tourney in the quarterfinals.

[LikeWhoa20]

Thank Anthony Goldwire for officially killing Charlotte's at-large hopes. Charlotte had the game won in overtime at George Washington today, but this dumbass throws 2 elbows at a GW player's face in the last 10 seconds, leading to a technical foul that gives GW another life to come back and win the game at the buzzer. There's no way I would be able to excuse that kid for his actions if I were Bobby Lutz.

[OCCoug]

Thank Anthony Goldwire for officially killing Charlotte's at-large hopes. Charlotte had the game won in overtime at George Washington today, but this dumbass throws 2 elbows at a GW player's face in the last 10 seconds, leading to a technical foul that gives GW another life to come back and win the game at the buzzer. There's no way I would be able to excuse that kid for his actions if I were Bobby Lutz.

Yeah, that was a pretty crazy ending. Sucked how long it took them to figure everything out though. ;)

[Wufpack]

Thank Anthony Goldwire for officially killing Charlotte's at-large hopes. Charlotte had the game won in overtime at George Washington today, but this dumbass throws 2 elbows at a GW player's face in the last 10 seconds, leading to a technical foul that gives GW another life to come back and win the game at the buzzer. There's no way I would be able to excuse that kid for his actions if I were Bobby Lutz.

His name is actually like Leemire Goldwire or something...he is a punk though and I would that asshole off the team.

[LikeWhoa20]

His name is actually like Leemire Goldwire or something...he is a punk though and I would that asshole off the team.
Yeah I realized that during the highlights; no clue where I got Anthony from haha.

[Corn Hawk]

Yeah I realized that during the highlights; no clue where I got Anthony from haha.
Anthony Goldwire is a former NBA player. I think he played for the Charlotte Hornets. That's probably where you got it from.

edit: yep (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/anthony_goldwire/index.html?nav=page), he did play for the Hornets. He also played for the Nuggets, Spurs, Wizards, Timberwolves, Nets, Pistons, Bucks, and Clippers for 3 games this year.

[TexasAggie2323]

Yeah, and they can end Colorado's hopes as well if they knock them out of the Big 12 tourney in the quarterfinals.

Some people think that if A&M loses it would knock them out of the tournament. With the way that CU has been playing I dont think they will make it out of the first round.

[LikeWhoa20]

Some people think that if A&M loses it would knock them out of the tournament. With the way that CU has been playing I dont think they will make it out of the first round.
Yeah after thinking about it, A&M is still on shaky ground considering how easy their nonconference schedule was. I remember Butler getting left out when they were 25-4 because their schedule was too easy. If other bubble teams keep stepping up, I'd start to worry if I were you. However, with all that said, I just don't see how they are going to take anything less than 4 teams from the Big 12.

[doh]

Syracuse needs a first-round Big East Tournament win and/or some teams ahead of them to falter or a second round win too to make the tournament now.

[Noles Fan in MA]

Syracuse needs a first-round Big East Tournament win and/or some teams ahead of them to falter or a second round win too to make the tournament now.

No way a team who loses by almost 40 to a crap ass team like DePaul deserves a tournament bid.

[TexasAggie2323]

Syracuse needs a first-round Big East Tournament win and/or some teams ahead of them to falter or a second round win too to make the tournament now.

They need to get to the finals to make it or win the whole thing.

[C Money]

I didnt read the first 4 pages of this thread, yet atleast, so idk if its already been asked...

but do you think Cincinnati will make the tourney now after beating WVU? I think they should, especially if they make any noise at all in the Big East tourney.

[doh]

I didnt read the first 4 pages of this thread, yet atleast, so idk if its already been asked...

but do you think Cincinnati will make the tourney now after beating WVU? I think they should, especially if they make any noise at all in the Big East tourney.
I think the Cincinnati/Syracuse first round Big East game is basically a play-in game to the Tournament at this point.

[Chase56]

I didnt read the first 4 pages of this thread, yet atleast, so idk if its already been asked...

but do you think Cincinnati will make the tourney now after beating WVU? I think they should, especially if they make any noise at all in the Big East tourney.

Cincy is pretty much a lock right now.

[LikeWhoa20]

Cincy is pretty much a lock right now.
I agree with this. They've shown that they are still an Tourney-caliber team without Kirkland in the lineup, and they've got more big wins than even some of the top 10 teams in the country. They're in.

[doh]

No way a team who loses by almost 40 to a crap ass team like DePaul deserves a tournament bid.
No team that is 56 in RPI should be in the tournament

[Fluff E Bunny]

No team that is 56 in RPI should be in the tournament

Davidson is in the tourney with an automatic bid and a paltry 101 RPI (according to Ken Pomeroy).

Murray St is in with RPI of 62.

Winthrop, 71. Pennsylvania, 93. Belmont, 117.

There will be others with some pretty shitty RPI's that will get in with an automatic bid because they won their shitty conferences.

I don't think any of the above teams would beat FSU, let alone Maryland or TAMU.


The RPI as a single indicator of who deserves to be in the dance is very misleading. A team can build a strong RPI resume with early season, road out of conference games..then have an average or poor performance in conference late in the year and still have an RPI way up there. That is why the committee takes a deeper look at the teams instead of just looking at a computer generated list full of statistical anomalies.

[LikeWhoa20]

Davidson is in the tourney with an automatic bid and a paltry 101 RPI (according to Ken Pomeroy).

Murray St is in with RPI of 62.

Winthrop, 71. Pennsylvania, 93. Belmont, 117.

There will be others with some pretty shitty RPI's that will get in with an automatic bid because they won their shitty conferences.

I don't think any of the above teams would beat FSU, let alone Maryland or TAMU.


The RPI as a single indicator of who deserves to be in the dance is very misleading. A team can build a strong RPI resume with early season, road out of conference games..then have an average or poor performance in conference late in the year and still have an RPI way up there. That is why the committee takes a deeper look at the teams instead of just looking at a computer generated list full of statistical anomalies.
He's talking about for at-large bids. Of course some teams with poor RPIs will get in thanks to automatic bids.

[Fluff E Bunny]

He's talking about for at-large bids. Of course some teams with poor RPIs will get in thanks to automatic bids.

I know he's talking about at-large bids. But using RPI as a sole justification for at-large bids is foolish if the same criteria isn't applied to conference champs. Some of these champs don't deserve to see the court, as far as I am concerned, but that's just the way it is. Same with teams from tougher conferences like the ACC getting in with a 56 RPI. You give the little guys a chance to dance, and you give the guys who play in harder conferences a chance too.

Using the RPI alone would be a travesty for everyone involved.

[LikeWhoa20]

I know he's talking about at-large bids. But using RPI as a sole justification for at-large bids is foolish if the same criteria isn't applied to conference champs. Some of these champs don't deserve to see the court, as far as I am concerned, but that's just the way it is. Same with teams from tougher conferences like the ACC getting in with a 56 RPI. You give the little guys a chance to dance, and you give the guys who play in harder conferences a chance too.

Using the RPI alone would be a travesty for everyone involved.
Yeah, the RPI should never be used alone. However, I think the committee focuses a lot more on who each team has specifically beaten and lost to rather than just saying what their RPI standing is, which is all you hear on ESPN.

[Fluff E Bunny]

Yeah, the RPI should never be used alone. However, I think the committee focuses a lot more on who each team has specifically beaten and lost to rather than just saying what their RPI standing is, which is all you hear on ESPN.

That is correct. The committe looks at a LOT more than RPI.

And ESPN is staffed with a bunch of idiots.

[swlpack]

Well, from the ACC's standpoint, FSU probably had their bubble burst today after losing in the first round to 12th seeded Wake Forest. Maryland can improve their position by beating GT, but most likely needs a win over BC tomorrow to solidify that they are in.

From the Big East, I'd guess that Seton Hall is now the furthest out after getting beat by Rutgers in a pretty convincing fashion yesterday. Syracuse played their way in by beat UConn, and I think Cincy still gets in despite losing to the Orange. Colorado/Texas A&M is a play-in game for the Big Dance tomorrow, Kentucky winning over Ole Miss today should put them in, same goes for UAB knocking off SMU.

I think both CU and TAMU would have gotten in if it hadn't been for the A-10 becoming a two-bid conference now with GW losing, and with other bubble teams like FSU, Seton Hall, etc. losing.

[swlpack]

Michigan may have moved backwards a little on the bubble after losing to Minnesota today too.

[volniac]

Well, Syracuse can pretty much count themselves in the tournament after upsetting #1 UCONN today.

[TexasAggie2323]

FSU probably had their bubble burst today as well.

[chiefnole85]

and another bubble spot is taken away as George Washington loses, meaning the A-10 gets 2 teams

[jman13]

I think we have got a good shot at the Tourney as a 12 seed after the emphatic win over GT coupled with the loss by FSU. I honestly cannot see the committee giving the ACC only 4 bids. I just don't think that will happen, and it appears that UMD could fall into the fifth spot but a win against BC will lock it up.

Temple and Syracuse winning pisses me off, but oh well. Our fate is in our hands.. that's all you can ever ask for.

[swlpack]

Maryland needs to beat BC so there isn't any doubt. They could still get in with a good competitive loss and other games around the country going their way, but better to take your course into your own hands rather than leave it up to others.

[evil1]

Air Force is probably out with their loss to Wyoming last night. Today's winner between CU and T A&M is in with the loser probably out.

[TexasAggie2323]

Air Force is probably out with their loss to Wyoming last night. Today's winner between CU and T A&M is in with the loser probably out.

I thought before today that there was a small shot for CU and A&M to have a very close game and then both teams would make it. However, with CU losing today by a large margin there is no way in hell that they get a bid.

[evil1]

I agree. Depending on how well Texas A&M plays in the remaining games of the Big 12 tournament, I think they could get a 6 seed.

[Chase56]

I agree. Depending on how well Texas A&M plays in the remaining games of the Big 12 tournament, I think they could get a 6 seed.

A 6 seed? Are you high? They beat one team in the top 50 this year, no better than a 10 seed.

[TexasAggie2323]

A 6 seed? Are you high? They beat one team in the top 50 this year, no better than a 10 seed.

No, he is basing his claim based on the future not the present. If A&M continues to play like they have they could win the Big 12 tournament. Giving them a 10 game winning streak in a tough conference. That alone would put them at least a 7 seed so thinking 6 is not that big of a stretch.

Will it happen? Probably not...most likely A&M loses a close game to Texas tomorrow and gets an 10-12 seed in the tournament.

[OCCoug]

Here's another look at the bubble:
http://tcaa.puretecmo.com/nit06.html

[Chase56]

Here's another look at the bubble:
http://tcaa.puretecmo.com/nit06.html

if lipscomb or VCU get into the NIT and we don't, well that is fucked up.